Average federal tax refunds this filing season are running noticeably higher than a year ago, a shift that could affect household budgets and political messaging as campaigns heat up. New Internal Revenue Service filing data show larger refunds tied to 2025 tax-law changes and lingering paycheck withholding patterns.
As of March 6, the IRS reported the typical refund for individual filers was about $3,676 — roughly 10.6% more than at the same point in 2025 when the average stood near $3,324. That figure has edged down slightly from last week’s snapshot, but it still reflects a substantially larger payout for many taxpayers this year.
What the numbers reveal
The filing period data cover roughly 60.7 million individual returns received so far, out of an estimated 164 million expected before the April 15 deadline. Analysts say these early returns often show a higher average refund because they include claims for refundable credits that are concentrated earlier in the filing season.
Historically, the average refund spikes in mid-February when returns claiming the earned income tax credit and the refundable portion of the child tax credit are processed, then gradually declines as more returns come in closer to Tax Day. This season’s overall lift, however, stems in part from new tax breaks enacted last year.
Why refunds are larger this year
Changes enacted in the 2025 tax package are a primary factor. The Treasury Department reported that more than 27.5 million returns — roughly 45% of filings submitted by March 8 — included at least one of the new tax provisions on the recently introduced Schedule 1‑A.
Schedule 1‑A lets taxpayers claim deductions such as special treatment for overtime and tip income, certain benefits for seniors, and a carve‑out for auto loan interest. Because the IRS did not update payroll withholding tables right after the July 2025 changes, many workers continued to have taxes withheld at prior rates, which increased the likelihood of a refund when those taxpayers filed.
Another important detail: the higher cap for the state and local tax deduction — commonly known as SALT — applies only to filers who itemize. In tax year 2022 nearly nine out of 10 returns used the standard deduction, while about 15 million returns claimed SALT, representing well under 10% of filers. Tax professionals expect itemizing rates to rise for 2025, meaning more filers could see larger refunds if they qualify.
- Average refund (as of March 6): $3,676
- Year-over-year change: up about 10.6% from the same point in 2025
- Returns processed so far: ~60.7 million (of ~164 million expected)
- Returns claiming new provisions: >27.5 million (nearly 45%), per Treasury
Why this matters now
For households, larger refunds can provide a short-term cash boost but also reflect a mismatch in withholding that affects take‑home pay throughout the year. Taxpayers who expect similar outcomes next year may want to review withholding choices — although the IRS has not indicated widespread adjustments were made automatically after the 2025 law changes.
Politically, the size and visibility of refunds are likely to feature in messaging as campaigns approach the midterm elections. Both parties can point to the numbers to make arguments about affordability, tax policy and economic relief, making the refunds a topical issue beyond personal finances.
Experts caution that the early-season averages will continue to shift as more returns arrive and as different types of filers — including those who itemize or claim refundable credits — complete their filings through April.
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Jordan Keller specializes in analyzing the US financial markets. With concrete recommendations, he helps you secure and boost your investments by providing strategies that adapt to market fluctuations.