New IRS filing figures show the typical tax refund so far this season is noticeably larger than a year ago — a shift that matters for household budgets and is already being used in political messaging as the midterm elections near. The updated data points to both policy changes and seasonal filing patterns that help explain why many filers are seeing bigger checks early in the year.
Through Feb. 27, the Internal Revenue Service reported the average refund for individual taxpayers at about $3,742, up from roughly $3,382 at the same point last year — an increase of about 10.6%. That average slipped from $3,804 reported the prior week, a reminder that the figure can move quickly as more returns are processed.
So far the IRS has processed roughly 51.5 million individual returns out of an estimated 164 million expected by the April 15 filing deadline. Historically, the average refund peaks in mid-February when filings claiming the earned income tax credit and the refundable portion of the child tax credit are tallied, then gradually eases as filing season continues.
What’s driving larger refunds
Several elements of the recent tax law changes are already visible in filings. Four new deductions — for tip income, overtime pay, seniors, and auto loan interest — are reported on a newly introduced form, called Schedule 1-A, which became part of many individual returns this season.
At a House Ways and Means Committee hearing, Social Security Administration commissioner and IRS CEO Frank Bisignano said that, as of March 4, about 43% of returns included Schedule 1-A. He added that returns using that form showed average refunds roughly $775 higher than comparable filings from the prior year.
Other policy changes likely contributing to bigger refunds include a raised deduction limit for state and local taxes (commonly referred to as SALT), a larger standard deduction and adjustments to the child tax credit for 2025. Still, tax outcomes remain sensitive to how much workers had withheld from paychecks and other payments made during the year.
- Schedule 1-A: New deductions for tips, overtime, senior income and auto loan interest.
- EITC and ACTC: Mid-February filings claiming the earned income tax credit and the additional child tax credit push the average up.
- SALT changes: Higher limits can increase refunds for taxpayers who itemize.
- Withholdings and prepayments: Employer withholding patterns can raise or lower refunds regardless of tax-law changes.
Political angle and caution about averages
With elections approaching, the size of refunds has become a talking point for both parties. The White House has pointed to early research and media coverage suggesting some households could see much larger refunds — in some statements, figures like “$1,000 or more” have been invoked — and Republicans have highlighted rising averages to support their messaging on tax policy.
Analysts urge caution interpreting the headline average: early-season numbers are shaped by who files first and which credits are claimed on those returns. Averages can be skewed by particular groups or by the timing of refundable credit claims; historically, the mean refund tends to decline as filing season progresses and a broader mix of returns is submitted.
For now, the data indicate a clear short-term boost in refund sizes tied to the new forms and deduction rules, but the final picture will only emerge once the bulk of returns are in before the mid-April deadline.
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