Social Security could adopt Trump-style private accounts: experts warn of big retiree impact

By Jordan Keller

President Donald Trump has unveiled a pair of new federal savings options — one aimed at children and another for adults without employer plans — that are already reshaping the conversation about retirement security. The programs promise seed money for young Americans and a new online vehicle for workers who lack 401(k) access, and they arrive as policymakers debate how to shore up Social Security’s finances.

The so-called Trump Accounts would automatically receive a $1,000 initial deposit for U.S. children with Social Security numbers who are born between 2025 and 2028. The White House says those accounts could grow to “at least $50,000” by age 18, and could be larger if families or others contribute over time.

Separately, the administration has directed the creation of a new website, TrumpIRA.gov, designed to let adults without employer-sponsored plans put money aside for retirement more easily. Officials say the site will help roughly 41 million workers who currently lack workplace retirement options.

How this feeds into the Social Security debate

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has framed the child accounts as a model for what he calls “personal accounts” inside Social Security, arguing the approach could shift retirement saving from a public benefit to individually managed investments. Cruz and some conservatives say regular contributions over decades could produce far larger balances than today’s public benefit model.

That idea is not new: similar proposals to allow workers to move payroll-tax dollars into private retirement accounts were floated publicly during the George W. Bush administration but failed to gain traction. Critics warn that moving part of Social Security into market-based accounts risks exposing retirees to stock-market declines.

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Advocacy groups pushed back quickly. Max Richtman, president and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, said supporters of the current program will resist any effort to privatize “hard-earned benefits.”

At the same time, administration statements have emphasized a commitment to “preserve and protect” Social Security, without formally proposing privatization as part of these new child- and worker-focused accounts.

Economists and policy experts remain split. Teresa Ghilarducci, a labor economist at the New School for Social Research, noted that many proposals for universal personal accounts have not included privatization as their aim. Yet she and others say the new accounts could still be complementary to — not a replacement for — a solvent Social Security system.

  • Who would get the child accounts: U.S. children born 2025–2028 with Social Security numbers, starting with a $1,000 seed deposit.
  • Who is targeted by TrumpIRA.gov: Adults without employer-sponsored plans — estimated at roughly 41 million people.
  • Projected account growth: Administration statements suggest a child account could reach at least $50,000 by age 18, assuming additional contributions and investment returns.
  • Primary concern: Shifting retirement dollars into private investments could increase returns but would also transfer market risk to individuals.

One of the central technical questions is how expected investment returns compare with Social Security’s current framework. Social Security trust funds today are invested in special-issue U.S. Treasury securities; the program’s recent new-issue yield was about 4.3% in 2025. By contrast, stock markets have delivered stronger recent returns — the S&P 500 rose sharply over the past year — but those gains are volatile and not guaranteed to continue.

“There is not broad appetite to fundamentally restructure the system and transfer market risk to retirees,” said Emerson Sprick, director of retirement and labor policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, noting that voters consistently identify Social Security as a highly valued federal program.

That element — guaranteed, inflation-adjusted lifetime benefits tied to work history — is what many defenders say distinguishes Social Security from private accounts. Social Security typically replaces roughly 40% of pre-retirement income for beneficiaries, according to AARP, leaving retirees to supplement the remainder with savings, pensions or lower-cost living.

For millions of workers without access to workplace plans, IRAs are an option but come with limitations: lower contribution caps than 401(k)s, often higher fees, narrower investment choices and the possibility of early withdrawals that undermine long-term growth. Ghilarducci and other experts believe the new Trump Accounts and TrumpIRA.gov could reduce some of those obstacles by increasing automatic participation and offering a simpler route to saving.

Still, experts stress that bolstering personal saving tools does not by itself resolve Social Security’s fiscal challenges. Lawmakers will have to consider other reforms — changes to payroll tax rules, benefits adjustments, or a mix of fixes — to address projected trust fund shortfalls.

“Building private savings can give people more confidence about retirement,” Ghilarducci said. “But ensuring Social Security’s solvency is a separate policy task that will require legislative action.”

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