Asteroid Threatens Moon with Massive Crater in 2032: City-Killer Impact Looms

As if our list of concerns wasn’t long enough, there’s now a possibility that the Moon could be struck by an asteroid as large as a sports stadium. The likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon in 2032 has increased to 4.3%, up from an earlier estimate of 3.8%, according to astronomers.

Earlier this year, this same asteroid was briefly estimated to have a 3.1% chance of crashing into Earth. Had it hit a densely populated area, the result could have been devastating, potentially obliterating neighborhoods and leaving a massive crater in place of what was once a bustling city. Though the risk to Earth has since been reduced, recent data from the James Webb Space Telescope indicates that the Moon isn’t out of harm’s way yet.

Utilizing data from the JWST gathered in May 2025, a research team led by Andy Rivkin at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab revisited their calculations, and the probability of the asteroid striking the Moon has been revised to 4.3%.

While these odds might seem low on a cosmic scale, they’re still noteworthy when considering the potential collision of space objects with celestial bodies. Should asteroid 2024 YR4 impact the Moon, it would not be catastrophic in an apocalyptic sense. The Moon’s orbit would remain unaffected, and no debris would be expected to threaten Earth. However, such an event would create a substantial new crater, providing a unique research opportunity for planetary scientists observing from Earth.

A direct hit of this magnitude would be “scientifically interesting,” notes ScienceAlert. It would offer scientists a rare opportunity to study the formation of a large lunar crater as it happens, with the Moon’s lack of atmosphere allowing the asteroid to strike with unmitigated force, a scenario that researchers find both rare and invaluable for study.

The journey of monitoring this asteroid is far from over. It is expected to approach Earth again in December 2028, providing another opportunity to closely observe and refine predictions about its trajectory. Until then, asteroid 2024 YR4 remains somewhat elusive, yet close enough to merit continuous observation.

So, as you tally up the list of bizarre space events to keep an eye on, you might want to mark “Moon explosion?” on your 2032 calendar, just to be safe.