$5,000 Stimulus Checks Disappoint: Experts Weigh In on Latest Developments After DOGE Shift

In recent weeks, there’s been widespread chatter about a potential $5,000 stimulus check from the newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This buzz has sparked a mixture of excitement and anticipation among the public, especially following the latest tax season. Nevertheless, media sources including MSNBC have quickly debunked these rumors, confirming that the White House has not announced any such stimulus plan.

Origins of the $5,000 Stimulus Check Speculation

The speculation about a $5,000 stimulus check began when James Fishback, CEO of investment firm Azoria, shared details of a dream he had about the government issuing checks to share the savings achieved by DOGE. Fishback later tweeted about this dream on the social media platform X, which caught the attention of DOGE’s head, Elon Musk.

“It all came together in just two and a half hours,” Fishback told NBC News in February. “We passed the idea to [White House Chief of Staff] Susie [Wiles], some folks in the administration, some at the Treasury, and just a day later, it was discussed with President Trump by Elon. It’s quite thrilling.”

Fishback explained that the proposed payments would target tax-paying households earning above a certain income threshold to address potential inflationary concerns:

“The DOGE Dividend is unlike previous stimulus payments, such as those from the 2021 American Rescue Plan, because it would only go to tax-paying households,” he stated. “These households are more likely to save rather than spend such a payment since consumption constitutes a smaller portion of their income… Paying off debt, saving for emergencies, or investing in education or retirement are deflationary actions, not inflationary.”

Calculating the $5,000 Figure

The $5,000 amount was initially calculated by Fishback, who assumed that DOGE would achieve its goal of saving $2 trillion. He suggested that 20% of these savings should be distributed among the 79 million Americans who pay income tax. This approach would provide $5,000 to each qualifying tax-paying household.

However, DOGE has recently adjusted its savings target from $2 trillion down to $150 billion. Moreover, although DOGE claims it has saved $165 billion, the available data indicates only $15 billion in actual savings, primarily through budget reductions in programs like USAID and Medicaid and by cutting down the workforce of the Social Security Administration (SSA) from 57,000 to 50,000 employees.

Concerns From Experts Regarding the $5,000 Stimulus Payment

Even if DOGE were to meet its revised savings goal of $165 billion, experts warn that issuing such a stimulus payment could be counterintuitive to DOGE’s mission of minimizing government waste:

“Before we start promising checks, we need to verify that savings have actually been achieved,” noted Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “I thought the goal here was to help reduce our national deficit.”

There’s also no official confirmation that the White House intends to pursue this plan, despite social media endorsements from both Musk and President Trump. Even if Congress were to approve the plan, DOGE must first realize its savings goals. Given the new savings target, the payments would likely reduce to around $1,000 per household if the initial proposal of distributing 20% of the savings holds. As of now, it remains a situation of “wait and see.”